Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sergipe · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Decisão are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Sergipe are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LDWWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Sergipe hold a 13.6-point power-rating edge (37.5 v 51.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.7% in the Serie D, while Sergipe holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 45% BTTS chance and 40% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sergipe
Probability
49.2%
Model confidence
13.7%
Sergipe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80