Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Retrô · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Decisão are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LLDWD), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Retrô are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WDLLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Retrô hold an 8.7-point power-rating edge (37.5 v 46.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.1% in the Serie D, while Retrô holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 43% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Retrô
Probability
43.2%
Model confidence
14.1%
Retrô has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80