Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lagarto · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Decisão are 1W-1D-0L in their last 2 (WD), averaging 0.50 scored and 0.00 conceded, while Lagarto are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DDLLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 7 games and 1 passed 2.5 goals, and Lagarto hold a 9.0-point power-rating edge (37.5 v 46.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.3% in the Serie D, while Lagarto holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 42% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lagarto
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
14.3%
Lagarto has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 0 · avg 0.50/0.00
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00