De Graafschapvs
Waalwijk
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eerste Divisie · 10/23/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Waalwijk · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-3 (8%), 1-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
De Graafschap 1-1 Waalwijk
Original prediction
Waalwijk
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.52 | 36.6% | 26.9% | -9.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.84 | 24.1% | 23.3% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.36 | 39.2% | 49.8% | 10.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.84 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–38%
- 3.1–18%
Predicted outcome
Waalwijk
Probability
49.8%
Model confidence
49.8%
Waalwijk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60