De Graafschapvs
NAC Breda
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eerste Divisie · 9/20/2026, 2:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
NAC Breda · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (8%), 2-2 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
De Graafschap 1-2 NAC Breda
Original prediction
NAC Breda
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.25 | 28.5% | 30.4% | 1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.88 | 23.8% | 21.9% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 1.94 | 47.7% | 47.7% | 0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.94 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–28%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
NAC Breda
Probability
47.7%
Model confidence
47.7%
NAC Breda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 17 · avg 1.20/3.40
GF 9 · GA 13 · avg 1.80/2.60