De Graafschapvs
Jong Utrecht
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eerste Divisie · 10/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
De Graafschap · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 1-2 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
De Graafschap 2-1 Jong Utrecht
Original prediction
De Graafschap
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.61 | 57.6% | 40.1% | -17.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.36 | 21.3% | 21.4% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 4.41 | 21.1% | 38.5% | 17.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.61 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.1–27%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
De Graafschap
Probability
40.1%
Model confidence
40.1%
De Graafschap has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60