Friendlies Clubs
De Graafschap
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Excelsior
AwayFriendly match — very hard to predict, not included in accuracy.
The model projects 1.92 xG for De Graafschap and 2.60 xG for Excelsior — strong and strong attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 1-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. Even with Excelsior holding the stronger xG profile, the opposition's strong attacking output is sufficient to keep BTTS in play.The attack-versus-defence matchup supports both teams scoring. De Graafschap's Attack Score (94) exceeds Excelsior's Defensive Stability (27), and Excelsior's attack (94) similarly tests De Graafschap's defence (0). Neither backline is dominant enough to prevent the other side from scoring.
The model projects a combined xG of 4.51 — high attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 1-1 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. The probability grid is dominated by scorelines of two goals or fewer, with the over 2.5 market requiring a result that sits outside the model's most likely outcomes.Historical meetings between these sides have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a pattern consistent with the current xG projection and the model's under 2.5 lean.
Momentum trend
last 5 matchesDe GraafschapExcelsiorProbability breakdown
Excelsior leads with 33% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.
De Graafschap vs Excelsior: Model Points to a Closely-Fought Draw
De Graafschap host Excelsior in Friendlies Clubs. De Graafschap have recorded DWLLLW in recent matches while Excelsior arrive with a run of DWWWWW. These sides have met 10 times recently, averaging 2.3 goals per game.
Why GoalVio backs this
The xG model projects 1.92 for De Graafschap and 2.60 for Excelsior. The gap of 0.68 is not large enough to decisively separate the sides — neither team is creating chances at a level that justifies a clear winner projection.
Biggest risk: The draw projection is inherently fragile — a single moment of quality from either side could produce a winner. The model sees no clear favourite, which means the actual result is highly sensitive to in-game events and individual quality.
Risk factors
- ⚠De Graafschap have been conceding 1.54 goals per game — their defence could be exposed.
- ⚠These sides have drawn 4 of their last 10 meetings — history suggests a tight, unpredictable contest.
- ⚠Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
Recent form
De Graafschap
Excelsior
Frequently asked questions
Who will win De Graafschap vs Excelsior?
GoalVio's model predicts a draw with 33% confidence.
What is the predicted score for De Graafschap vs Excelsior?
The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-2.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Excelsior?
GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in De Graafschap vs Excelsior?
GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.