De Graafschapvs
Den Bosch
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eerste Divisie · 9/27/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Den Bosch · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (8%), 2-2 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
De Graafschap 1-0 Den Bosch
Original prediction
Den Bosch
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.19 | 42.4% | 33.5% | -8.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.90 | 23.7% | 21.4% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 2.73 | 33.9% | 45.1% | 11.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–28%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Den Bosch
Probability
45.1%
Model confidence
45.1%
Den Bosch has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 14 · avg 1.00/2.80
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40