De Graafschapvs
Almere City FC
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eerste Divisie · 8/29/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Almere City FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
De Graafschap 1-4 Almere City FC
Original prediction
Almere City FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.26 | 41.1% | 28.6% | -12.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.97 | 23.4% | 23.4% | -0.0 pts |
| Away | 2.61 | 35.6% | 48.0% | 12.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.61 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Almere City FC
Probability
48.0%
Model confidence
48.0%
Almere City FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 15 · avg 1.80/3.00
GF 15 · GA 10 · avg 3.00/2.00