Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer
Saturday, 25 July 2026Last updated 15:02
DC United

DC United

Home
DL
21
Full time
Toronto FC

Toronto FC

Away
D
Audi Field
GoalVio prediction
43% confidence
DC United(43%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Win probability
DC United
43%
Draw
24%
Toronto FC
33%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
DC United
34
Toronto FC
9
Defence
DC United
27
Toronto FC
91
Momentum
DC United
17
Toronto FC
33
Danger (xG)
DC United
0.90
Toronto FC
0.44
Both teams to score
Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Yes
xG for (DC United)
0.90
avg per match
xG for (Toronto FC)
0.44
avg per match
xG against (DC United)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Toronto FC)
0.94
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
DC UnitedDC United
DL
Toronto FCToronto FC
DL

Probability breakdown

43% confidence
DC United43%
Draw24%
Toronto FC33%

DC United leads with 43% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

Share this

Analysis

Match insights

DC United head into this in Major League Soccer fixture at Audi Field in mixed form (DL), while Toronto FC arrive in mixed form (D). DC United have a 0% win rate across their last 2 matches, compared to 0% for Toronto FC over 1 games.

The model rates DC United's attack at 34/100 against a 91/100 Toronto FC defence, and Toronto FC's attack at 9/100 against a 27/100 DC United backline — a balanced matchup with neither side holding a clear structural edge.

DC United have struggled at home recently, failing to win any of their last 2 home games. They average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per home match. Toronto FC have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 2 away matches. They average 0.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per away game.

Toronto FC have generated 0.44 xG per game recently while conceding 0.94 xG per match, underperforming their xG in 100% of recent matches.

There is no head-to-head data between DC United and Toronto FC in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects DC United to win with 43% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-1. Win probabilities: DC United 4345%, Draw 2376%, Toronto FC 3279%. BTTS: Yes, Over 2.5: Yes.

Recent form

DC United

DC United

D
vs St. Louis City
17 May 2026
11
L
vs Chicago Fire
14 May 2026
13
Toronto FC

Toronto FC

D
@ CF Montreal
17 Jul 2026
00
xG 0.4
L
@ Charlotte
17 May 2026
13

Frequently asked questions

Who will win DC United vs Toronto FC?

GoalVio's model predicts DC United to win with 43% confidence.

What is the predicted score for DC United vs Toronto FC?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in DC United vs Toronto FC?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in DC United vs Toronto FC?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

Explore more predictions

About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
View full accuracy stats →
Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more