DC Unitedvs
SC Paderborn 07
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies Clubs · 9/30/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
SC Paderborn 07 · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-3 (12%), 0-2 (12%), 0-4 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
DC United 0-1 SC Paderborn 07
Original prediction
SC Paderborn 07
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 8 September 2026 at 09:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.11 | 29.3% | 21.8% | -7.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 23.9% | 22.4% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 1.95 | 46.8% | 55.8% | 8.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.95 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–312%
- 2.0–212%
- 3.0–410%
Predicted outcome
SC Paderborn 07
Probability
55.8%
Model confidence
55.8%
SC Paderborn 07 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40