DC Unitedvs
New York Red Bulls
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 10/14/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
DC United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
DC United 2-1 New York Red Bulls
Original prediction
DC United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.30 | 41.0% | 38.5% | -2.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 24.5% | 27.8% | 3.3 pts |
| Away | 2.74 | 34.4% | 33.6% | -0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.30 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
DC United
Probability
38.5%
Model confidence
38.5%
DC United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20