DC Unitedvs
Atlanta United FC
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 9/12/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
DC United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
DC United 0-0 Atlanta United FC
Original prediction
DC United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.15 | 43.7% | 41.4% | -2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 25.7% | 28.1% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 3.06 | 30.6% | 30.6% | -0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.65 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
DC United
Probability
41.4%
Model confidence
41.4%
DC United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80