Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Itesalat · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dayrout 0-2 Itesalat
Original prediction
Itesalat
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.57 | 25.4% | 29.8% | 4.5 pts |
| Draw | 2.71 | 33.4% | 31.1% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 2.20 | 41.2% | 39.1% | -2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.20 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Itesalat
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
Itesalat has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DayroutLLLWW
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
ItesalatWLLDL
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
DayroutItesalat
0.0Attack33.3
0.0Defence50.0
0.0Form50.0
8.0Power47.8
0.91xG1.13