Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dartford · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 3-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dartford 2-1 Whitehawk
Original prediction
Dartford
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.38 | 65.7% | 73.6% | 7.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.80 | 18.9% | 15.5% | -3.4 pts |
| Away | 5.89 | 15.4% | 10.9% | -4.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.38 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.3–011%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Dartford
Probability
73.6%
Model confidence
73.6%
Dartford has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DartfordWWWWW
GF 14 · GA 2 · avg 2.80/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
WhitehawkWWLLD
GF 12 · GA 11 · avg 2.40/2.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
DartfordWhitehawk
54.2Attack37.5
66.7Defence20.8
75.0Form20.8
66.8Power29.8
2.89xG0.74