Darlington 1883vs
Merthyr Town
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Merthyr Town · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Darlington 1883 1-1 Merthyr Town
Original prediction
Merthyr Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.31 | 39.3% | 25.5% | -13.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 25.1% | 23.9% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.54 | 35.7% | 50.6% | 14.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.62 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–211%
Predicted outcome
Merthyr Town
Probability
50.6%
Model confidence
50.6%
Merthyr Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 13 · avg 1.60/2.60
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00