Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Danubio are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LWDWD), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Emelec are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Emelec hold a 5.9-point power-rating edge (46.6 v 52.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.0% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 26% BTTS chance and 16% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
46.0%
Model confidence
46.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20