Dangjin Citizenvs
Gyeongju HNP
COMPLETEDSouth-Korea · K3 League · 10/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dangjin Citizen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dangjin Citizen 2-3 Gyeongju HNP
Original prediction
Dangjin Citizen
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 10:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.92 | 31.3% | 44.2% | 13.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.8% | 22.3% | -3.4 pts |
| Away | 2.12 | 43.0% | 33.5% | -9.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Dangjin Citizen
Probability
44.2%
Model confidence
44.2%
Dangjin Citizen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 11 · avg 2.40/2.20
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00