Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League
Wednesday, 10 June 2026Last updated 12:39
Damash Gilanian

Damash Gilanian

Home
D
07
Full time
Mes Shahr-e Babak

Mes Shahr-e Babak

Away
W
GoalVio prediction
66% confidence
Mes Shahr-e Babak(66%)
Most likely exact score0-1
Prediction correct— Result: Mes Shahr-e Babak
Win probability
Damash Gilanian
11%
Draw
23%
Mes Shahr-e Babak
66%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Damash Gilanian
9
Mes Shahr-e Babak
73
Defence
Damash Gilanian
91
Mes Shahr-e Babak
91
Momentum
Damash Gilanian
33
Mes Shahr-e Babak
100
Danger (xG)
Damash Gilanian
0.00
Mes Shahr-e Babak
1.80
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 1.23 xG for Damash Gilanian and 1.45 xG for Mes Shahr-e Babak. Damash Gilanian's projected xG of 1.23 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 0-1 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. With only 1 goal expected in total, the match is projected to be a tight, low-scoring affair where one goal may be enough to decide the contest.Mes Shahr-e Babak's Defensive Stability Score (91) comfortably exceeds the opposition's Attack Score (9). That structural defensive advantage is the clearest reason the model does not project both teams scoring.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 2.68 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 0-1 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. Only 1 goal is expected in the most likely outcome — the model sees this as a tight, low-scoring contest where one goal could be decisive.The defensive profiles of both sides are stronger than their attacking counterparts — Damash Gilanian's Defensive Stability (91) and Mes Shahr-e Babak's (91) both suggest teams capable of limiting the opposition. When both defences are this organised, the model expects a lower-scoring environment.

xG for (Damash Gilanian)
0.00
avg per match
xG for (Mes Shahr-e Babak)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Damash Gilanian)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Mes Shahr-e Babak)
0.00
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Damash GilanianDamash Gilanian
DL
Mes Shahr-e BabakMes Shahr-e Babak
WWW

Probability breakdown

66% confidence
Damash Gilanian11%
Draw23%
Mes Shahr-e Babak66%

Mes Shahr-e Babak leads with 66% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Mes Shahr-e Babak Backed to Win — Model Projects 0-1

Damash Gilanian take on Mes Shahr-e Babak in Azadegan League.

Key factors

: ⚠️ Upset Risk Damash Gilanian have won 0 of their last 5 matches — a run of form that keeps this fixture competitive. While Mes Shahr-e Babak carry the stronger underlying metrics, Damash Gilanian's recent results mean the gap is narrower than the headline verdict implies.

Why GoalVio backs this

Mes Shahr-e Babak hold a slim but consistent edge across the key input metrics. No single factor clears the threshold required to claim a material advantage, but chance quality, defensive organisation, and recent form all point in the same direction — and when multiple independent signals align, that convergence is the model's case for Mes Shahr-e Babak.

Biggest risk: The xG gap between these sides is narrow — a small swing in form, a set-piece goal, or a tactical adjustment could flip the result. The model favours Mes Shahr-e Babak, but this is not a fixture where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. If Damash Gilanian score first, the game becomes genuinely open.

Risk factors

  • The xG gap is narrow at 0.23 — a small swing in form or tactics could flip the result.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
  • The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.

Head to head

Damash Gilanian 0Draws 01 Mes Shahr-e Babak
Avg goals: 7.0
10 Jun 2026
Damash Gilanian
L07
Mes Shahr-e Babak

Recent form

Damash Gilanian

Damash Gilanian

D
vs Fard Alborz
16 Jul 2026
00
L
vs Mes Shahr-e Babak
10 Jun 2026
07
Mes Shahr-e Babak

Mes Shahr-e Babak

W
@ Naft Gachsaran
16 Jul 2026
20
W
@ Damash Gilanian
10 Jun 2026
70
W
@ Mes Kerman
14 May 2026
10

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Damash Gilanian vs Mes Shahr-e Babak?

GoalVio's model predicts Mes Shahr-e Babak to win with 66% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Damash Gilanian vs Mes Shahr-e Babak?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 0-1.

Will both teams score in Damash Gilanian vs Mes Shahr-e Babak?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Damash Gilanian vs Mes Shahr-e Babak?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more