Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League
Thursday, 16 July 2026Last updated 15:02
Damash Gilanian

Damash Gilanian

Home
D
00
Full time
Fard Alborz

Fard Alborz

Away
D
GoalVio prediction
65% confidence
Fard Alborz(65%)
Most likely exact score0-2
Prediction missed— Result: Draw
Win probability
Damash Gilanian
11%
Draw
24%
Fard Alborz
65%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Damash Gilanian
9
Fard Alborz
9
Defence
Damash Gilanian
91
Fard Alborz
91
Momentum
Damash Gilanian
33
Fard Alborz
33
Danger (xG)
Damash Gilanian
0.00
Fard Alborz
0.00
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 1.27 xG for Damash Gilanian and 1.41 xG for Fard Alborz. Damash Gilanian's projected xG of 1.27 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 0-1 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. With only 1 goal expected in total, the match is projected to be a tight, low-scoring affair where one goal may be enough to decide the contest.Fard Alborz's Defensive Stability Score (91) comfortably exceeds the opposition's Attack Score (9). That structural defensive advantage is the clearest reason the model does not project both teams scoring.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 2.68 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 0-1 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. Only 1 goal is expected in the most likely outcome — the model sees this as a tight, low-scoring contest where one goal could be decisive.The defensive profiles of both sides are stronger than their attacking counterparts — Damash Gilanian's Defensive Stability (91) and Fard Alborz's (91) both suggest teams capable of limiting the opposition. When both defences are this organised, the model expects a lower-scoring environment.

xG for (Damash Gilanian)
0.00
avg per match
xG for (Fard Alborz)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Damash Gilanian)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Fard Alborz)
0.00
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Damash GilanianDamash Gilanian
DL
Fard AlborzFard Alborz
DD

Probability breakdown

65% confidence
Damash Gilanian11%
Draw24%
Fard Alborz65%

Fard Alborz leads with 65% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Fard Alborz Backed to Win — Model Projects 0-2

Damash Gilanian take on Fard Alborz in Azadegan League.

Key factors

: ⚠️ Upset Risk Damash Gilanian have won 0 of their last 5 matches — a run of form that keeps this fixture competitive. While Fard Alborz carry the stronger underlying metrics, Damash Gilanian's recent results mean the gap is narrower than the headline verdict implies.

Why GoalVio backs this

Fard Alborz hold a slim but consistent edge across the key input metrics. No single factor clears the threshold required to claim a material advantage, but chance quality, defensive organisation, and recent form all point in the same direction — and when multiple independent signals align, that convergence is the model's case for Fard Alborz.

Biggest risk: The xG gap between these sides is narrow — a small swing in form, a set-piece goal, or a tactical adjustment could flip the result. The model favours Fard Alborz, but this is not a fixture where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. If Damash Gilanian score first, the game becomes genuinely open.

Risk factors

  • These sides have drawn 2 of their last 2 meetings — history suggests a tight, unpredictable contest.
  • The xG gap is narrow at 0.14 — a small swing in form or tactics could flip the result.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.

Head to head

Damash Gilanian 0Draws 10 Fard Alborz
Avg goals: 0.0
16 Jul 2026
Damash Gilanian
D00
Fard Alborz

Recent form

Damash Gilanian

Damash Gilanian

D
vs Fard Alborz
16 Jul 2026
00
L
vs Mes Shahr-e Babak
10 Jun 2026
07
Fard Alborz

Fard Alborz

D
@ Damash Gilanian
16 Jul 2026
00
D
@ Shahrdari Noshahr
14 May 2026
00

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Damash Gilanian vs Fard Alborz?

GoalVio's model predicts Fard Alborz to win with 65% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Damash Gilanian vs Fard Alborz?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 0-2.

Will both teams score in Damash Gilanian vs Fard Alborz?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Damash Gilanian vs Fard Alborz?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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