Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Ula · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Damac 0-1 Al Ula
Original prediction
Al Ula
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.66 | 24.8% | 28.0% | 3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 28.1% | 28.8% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 1.93 | 47.0% | 43.2% | -3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.93 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Al Ula
Probability
43.2%
Model confidence
43.2%
Al Ula has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DamacDDDLW
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Al UlaWWWDD
GF 6 · GA 1 · avg 1.20/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
DamacAl Ula
22.2Attack66.7
77.8Defence88.9
33.3Form100.0
48.3Power87.9
0.91xG1.28