League TwoLeague Two
Saturday, 25 July 2026Last updated 17:32
Dalian Kewei

Dalian Kewei

Home
LW
20
Full time
Dalian Yingbo B

Dalian Yingbo B

Away
D
Dalian Football Youth Training Base Stadium
GoalVio prediction
44% confidence
Dalian Kewei(44%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Dalian Kewei
44%
Draw
30%
Dalian Yingbo B
26%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Dalian Kewei
34
Dalian Yingbo B
9
Defence
Dalian Kewei
46
Dalian Yingbo B
91
Momentum
Dalian Kewei
50
Dalian Yingbo B
33
Danger (xG)
Dalian Kewei
0.90
Dalian Yingbo B
0.00
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 1.20 xG for Dalian Kewei and 0.47 xG for Dalian Yingbo B. Dalian Yingbo B's projected xG of 0.47 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 1-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. With only 1 goal expected in total, the match is projected to be a tight, low-scoring affair where one goal may be enough to decide the contest.Dalian Kewei's Defensive Stability Score (46) comfortably exceeds the opposition's Attack Score (9). That structural defensive advantage is the clearest reason the model does not project both teams scoring.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 1.68 — low attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 1-0 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. Only 1 goal is expected in the most likely outcome — the model sees this as a tight, low-scoring contest where one goal could be decisive.The defensive profiles of both sides are stronger than their attacking counterparts — Dalian Kewei's Defensive Stability (46) and Dalian Yingbo B's (91) both suggest teams capable of limiting the opposition. When both defences are this organised, the model expects a lower-scoring environment.

xG for (Dalian Kewei)
0.90
avg per match
xG for (Dalian Yingbo B)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Dalian Kewei)
1.35
avg per match
xG against (Dalian Yingbo B)
0.00
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Dalian KeweiDalian Kewei
LWW
Dalian Yingbo BDalian Yingbo B
D

Probability breakdown

44% confidence
Dalian Kewei44%
Draw30%
Dalian Yingbo B26%

Dalian Kewei leads with 44% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Dalian Kewei Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-0

Dalian Kewei host Dalian Yingbo B in League Two. Dalian Kewei have recorded WLDWLW in recent matches while Dalian Yingbo B arrive with a run of WWDDLL. These sides have met 2 times recently, averaging 1.0 goals per game.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 1.20 expected goals for Dalian Kewei against 0.47 for Dalian Yingbo B — a clear advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. Dalian Kewei's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 58% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: ⚽ Attacking Efficiency Dalian Kewei have averaged 1.20 goals per game recently while Dalian Yingbo B have managed 0.70. Dalian Kewei carry the sharper attacking edge — a factor the model weighs in its Dalian Kewei win projection.

Why GoalVio backs this

Dalian Kewei are generating a clear xG advantage — 1.20 projected against 0.47 for Dalian Yingbo B. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 0.73 is the clearest signal in the model that Dalian Kewei are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: Dalian Kewei's projection depends on converting chances into goals. If Dalian Yingbo B defend deep, absorb pressure, and hit on the counter, the match could end differently than the model projects — particularly if Dalian Kewei fail to score in the first half.

Risk factors

  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
  • The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.

Recent form

Dalian Kewei

Dalian Kewei

L
@ Xi'an Ronghai
8 Jul 2026
02
W
@ Nantong Haimen Codion
4 Jul 2026
21
W
vs Nantong Zhiyun
15 May 2026
21
Dalian Yingbo B

Dalian Yingbo B

D
vs Qingdao Red Lions
5 Jul 2026
00

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Dalian Kewei vs Dalian Yingbo B?

GoalVio's model predicts Dalian Kewei to win with 44% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Dalian Kewei vs Dalian Yingbo B?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Dalian Kewei vs Dalian Yingbo B?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Dalian Kewei vs Dalian Yingbo B?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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