Dagenham & Redbridgevs
Waltham Abbey
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 9/22/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dagenham & Redbridge · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dagenham & Redbridge 3-0 Waltham Abbey
Original prediction
Dagenham & Redbridge
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.37 | 66.1% | 40.7% | -25.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.73 | 19.1% | 24.7% | 5.6 pts |
| Away | 6.11 | 14.8% | 34.5% | 19.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.37 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-25.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Dagenham & Redbridge
Probability
40.7%
Model confidence
40.7%
Dagenham & Redbridge has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60