Daejeon Korailvs
Ulsan Citizen
COMPLETEDSouth-Korea · K3 League · 9/11/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Daejeon Korail · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Daejeon Korail 1-0 Ulsan Citizen, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Daejeon Korail 0-1 Ulsan Citizen
Original prediction
Daejeon Korail
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.64 | 55.6% | 58.4% | 2.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 25.8% | 26.7% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 4.88 | 18.6% | 14.8% | -3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.9 pts
Projected Score
Daejeon Korail 1–0 Ulsan Citizen
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Daejeon Korail
Probability
58.4%
Model confidence
58.4%
Daejeon Korail has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80