Daejeon Citizenvs
Gwangju FC
COMPLETEDSouth-Korea · K League 1 · 10/18/2026, 5:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Daejeon Citizen · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Daejeon Citizen 2-0 Gwangju FC, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Daejeon Citizen 3-2 Gwangju FC
Original prediction
Daejeon Citizen
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 19:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.38 | 67.1% | 77.3% | 10.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.77 | 19.5% | 15.0% | -4.5 pts |
| Away | 6.91 | 13.4% | 7.7% | -5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.38 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.2 pts
Projected Score
Daejeon Citizen 2–0 Gwangju FC
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Daejeon Citizen
Probability
77.3%
Model confidence
77.3%
Daejeon Citizen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80