Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Erlbach · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Dachau are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLLDW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Erlbach are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWDWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Erlbach hold a 16.3-point power-rating edge (42.3 v 58.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 48.6% in the Oberliga - Bayern Süd, while Erlbach holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 61% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Erlbach
Probability
48.6%
Model confidence
48.6%
Erlbach has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60