D. La Serenavs
Nublense
COMPLETEDChile · Primera División · 9/6/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
D. La Serena · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
D. La Serena 2-1 Nublense
Original prediction
D. La Serena
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.45 | 37.6% | 39.2% | 1.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 28.2% | 25.8% | -2.4 pts |
| Away | 2.70 | 34.2% | 35.0% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.45 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
D. La Serena
Probability
39.2%
Model confidence
39.2%
D. La Serena has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40