D. La Serenavs
Concepción
COMPLETEDChile · Primera División · 10/24/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
D. La Serena · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
D. La Serena 3-1 Concepción
Original prediction
D. La Serena
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.25 | 40.9% | 38.4% | -2.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 27.8% | 27.6% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.94 | 31.3% | 34.1% | 2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
D. La Serena
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
D. La Serena has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80