Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
England · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Czechia 0-2 England
Original prediction
England
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 9.48 | 10.0% | 21.1% | 11.0 pts |
| Draw | 5.39 | 17.6% | 23.7% | 6.1 pts |
| Away | 1.31 | 72.4% | 55.2% | -17.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.31 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
England
Probability
55.2%
Model confidence
55.2%
England has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CzechiaLWWWD
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
EnglandLWWLD
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CzechiaEngland
50.0Attack88.9
55.6Defence83.3
61.1Form83.3
57.7Power82.8
0.94xG1.63