Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Czechia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Czechia 1-2 Croatia
Original prediction
Czechia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.64 | 26.0% | 38.4% | 12.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 27.1% | 27.5% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.02 | 46.9% | 34.1% | -12.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Czechia
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Czechia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CzechiaWWWDW
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
CroatiaWLLWL
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CzechiaCroatia
50.0Attack41.7
55.6Defence58.3
61.1Form45.8
57.7Power50.9
1.33xG1.01