Czarni Połaniecvs
Busko-Zdroj
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 4 · 10/24/2026, 9:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Czarni Połaniec · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Czarni Połaniec 2-1 Busko-Zdroj
Original prediction
Czarni Połaniec
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.43 | 63.3% | 53.8% | -9.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.49 | 20.1% | 23.6% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 5.42 | 16.6% | 22.6% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.43 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.1–18%
Predicted outcome
Czarni Połaniec
Probability
53.8%
Model confidence
53.8%
Czarni Połaniec has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 8 · GA 14 · avg 1.60/2.80