Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cyprus · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cyprus 2-1 Latvia
Original prediction
Cyprus
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 58.9% | 48.2% | -10.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.79 | 24.8% | 27.8% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 5.77 | 16.3% | 24.0% | 7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.59 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Cyprus
Probability
48.2%
Model confidence
48.2%
Cyprus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CyprusWDLWD
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
LatviaLDLWW
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
CyprusLatvia
33.3Attack11.1
77.8Defence55.6
44.4Form11.1
53.1Power29.5
1.34xG0.81