Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cyprus · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cyprus 2-0 Armenia
Original prediction
Cyprus
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 00:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.18 | 43.1% | 36.4% | -6.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 28.6% | 28.7% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.32 | 28.3% | 34.8% | 6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.18 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Cyprus
Probability
36.4%
Model confidence
36.4%
Cyprus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CyprusDLWDW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ArmeniaLWDDL
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
CyprusArmenia
16.7Attack66.7
66.7Defence50.0
16.7Form50.0
36.5Power56.2
1.18xG1.27