Curzon Ashtonvs
Bradford (Park Avenue)
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 9/5/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Curzon Ashton · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Curzon Ashton 1-2 Bradford (Park Avenue)
Original prediction
Curzon Ashton
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.46 | 62.0% | 43.7% | -18.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.23 | 21.3% | 27.5% | 6.2 pts |
| Away | 5.40 | 16.7% | 28.7% | 12.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Curzon Ashton
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
43.7%
Curzon Ashton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20