GGOALVIO

Chile · Primera División · 2/4/2023, 12:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

A. Italiano · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Curico Unido are 3W-0D-1L in their last 4 (LWWW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.75 conceded, while A. Italiano are 1W-1D-0L in their last 2 (WD), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 6 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and A. Italiano hold a 10.8-point power-rating edge (34.5 v 45.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.5% in the Primera División, while A. Italiano holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 43% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

A. Italiano

Probability

45.5%

Model confidence

45.5%

A. Italiano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Curico UnidoLWWW

GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.75

BTTS 1/4O2.5 1/4
A. ItalianoWD

GF 4 · GA 1 · avg 2.00/0.50

BTTS 1/2O2.5 1/2
Curico UnidoA. Italiano
33.3Attack40.4
35.6Defence54.4
25.6Form36.8
34.5Power45.4
0.95xG1.47
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