Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nicaragua · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Curaçao 6-1 Nicaragua
Original prediction
Nicaragua
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.36 | 67.6% | 32.3% | -35.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.62 | 19.8% | 21.1% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 7.28 | 12.6% | 46.7% | 34.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
34.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.0–29%
- 3.1–18%
Predicted outcome
Nicaragua
Probability
46.7%
Model confidence
46.7%
Nicaragua has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CuraçaoWWLLW
GF 13 · GA 10 · avg 2.60/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
NicaraguaLLDLD
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CuraçaoNicaragua
50.0Attack94.4
41.7Defence94.4
25.0Form88.9
40.3Power90.0
1.13xG2.57