Cumbayávs
El Nacional
COMPLETEDEcuador · Liga Pro Serie B · 10/22/2026, 8:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cumbayá · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Cumbayá 1-0 El Nacional, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Cumbayá 2-1 El Nacional
Original prediction
Cumbayá
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 17:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.50 | 59.6% | 65.3% | 5.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.92 | 22.8% | 22.0% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 5.06 | 17.6% | 12.7% | -5.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.50 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.7 pts
Projected Score
Cumbayá 1–0 El Nacional
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Cumbayá
Probability
65.3%
Model confidence
65.3%
Cumbayá has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CumbayáWDLWW
GF 18 · GA 6 · avg 3.60/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
El NacionalLWLLL
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
CumbayáEl Nacional
45.6Attack28.9
65.6Defence46.7
41.1Form20.0
49.9Power33.9
1.64xG0.52