Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cukaricki · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cukaricki 2-2 Macva
Original prediction
Cukaricki
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 16:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.50 | 60.3% | 55.6% | -4.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.75 | 24.2% | 24.6% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 5.85 | 15.5% | 19.7% | 4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.75 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Cukaricki
Probability
55.6%
Model confidence
55.6%
Cukaricki has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CukarickiLDLLL
GF 3 · GA 15 · avg 0.60/3.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
MacvaLLDDW
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
CukarickiMacva
40.0Attack20.0
40.0Defence43.3
36.7Form26.7
39.8Power33.1
1.49xG0.84