Cuiabavs
Ponte Preta
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie B · 10/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cuiaba · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Cuiaba 1-0 Ponte Preta, with an exact score probability of 22%.
Prediction record
Final result
Cuiaba 2-0 Ponte Preta
Original prediction
Cuiaba
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 16:35 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.16 | 80.8% | 74.9% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 6.98 | 13.4% | 18.8% | 5.3 pts |
| Away | 16.30 | 5.8% | 6.3% | 0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.16 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.9 pts
Projected Score
Cuiaba 1–0 Ponte Preta
Exact score probability: 22%
Predicted outcome
Cuiaba
Probability
74.9%
Model confidence
74.9%
Cuiaba has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CuiabaLWDWL
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
Ponte PretaLWLLL
GF 1 · GA 12 · avg 0.20/2.40
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
CuiabaPonte Preta
33.3Attack18.9
72.2Defence28.9
47.8Form14.4
52.7Power24.5
1.66xG0.33