Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cuiaba · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Cuiaba are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDWDL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Palestino are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LDWDW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Cuiaba hold a 19.9-point power-rating edge (59.4 v 39.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 48.6% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Cuiaba holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 26% BTTS chance and 21% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Cuiaba
Probability
48.6%
Model confidence
48.6%
Cuiaba has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60