Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cuiaba · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Cuiaba are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWWLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Lanus are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLWLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Cuiaba hold an 18.8-point power-rating edge (59.4 v 40.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.8% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Cuiaba holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 38% BTTS chance and 35% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Cuiaba
Probability
53.8%
Model confidence
53.8%
Cuiaba has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40