Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Cuiaba are 1W-4D-0L in their last 5 (DDDWD), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Ceara are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DDDWW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 1 passed 2.5 goals, and Cuiaba hold a 2.1-point power-rating edge (49.5 v 47.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 33.1% in the Serie B, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 19% BTTS chance and 11% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
45.1%
Model confidence
33.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 0.60/0.40
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60