Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cuiaba · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Cuiaba 0-0 Avai, with an exact score probability of 24%.
Prediction record
Final result
Cuiaba 0-1 Avai
Original prediction
Cuiaba
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 09:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.62 | 56.9% | 51.0% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 26.2% | 30.8% | 4.6 pts |
| Away | 5.47 | 16.9% | 18.3% | 1.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.9 pts
Projected Score
Cuiaba 0–0 Avai
Exact score probability: 24%
Predicted outcome
Cuiaba
Probability
51.0%
Model confidence
51.0%
Cuiaba has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CuiabaDWLWD
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
AvaiWLLLD
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CuiabaAvai
33.3Attack33.3
74.0Defence55.2
49.0Form34.4
53.6Power43.4
0.99xG0.46