Cubavs
St. Kitts and Nevis
COMPLETEDWorld · CONCACAF Nations League · 10/5/2026, 9:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cuba · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cuba 2-2 St. Kitts and Nevis
Original prediction
Cuba
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.66 | 55.3% | 46.3% | -9.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.07 | 22.5% | 24.2% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 4.11 | 22.3% | 29.5% | 7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.07 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Cuba
Probability
46.3%
Model confidence
46.3%
Cuba has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 15 · GA 5 · avg 3.00/1.00