Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cuba · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cuba 2-0 Bonaire
Original prediction
Cuba
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.13 | 80.7% | 48.9% | -31.8 pts |
| Draw | 7.03 | 13.0% | 23.4% | 10.4 pts |
| Away | 14.38 | 6.3% | 27.8% | 21.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.13 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-31.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Cuba
Probability
48.9%
Model confidence
48.9%
Cuba has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CubaWLLLW
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
BTTS 0/5O2.5 3/5
BonaireLLLLW
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CubaBonaire
8.3Attack50.0
66.7Defence50.0
41.7Form50.0
41.6Power49.5
1.41xG1.31