Liga IILiga II
Saturday, 1 August 202609:00Updated today
CSM Ramnicu Valcea

CSM Ramnicu Valcea

Home
W
vs
09:00
Popești-Leordeni

Popești-Leordeni

Away
D
Stadionul Municipal
GoalVio prediction
54% confidence
CSM Ramnicu Valcea(54%)
Most likely exact score2-0
Win probability
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
54%
Draw
26%
Popești-Leordeni
21%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
94
Popești-Leordeni
34
Defence
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
91
Popești-Leordeni
66
Momentum
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
100
Popești-Leordeni
33
Danger (xG)
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
2.70
Popești-Leordeni
0.90
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 2.49 xG for CSM Ramnicu Valcea and 0.99 xG for Popești-Leordeni. Popești-Leordeni's projected xG of 0.99 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 2-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. The xG distribution suggests CSM Ramnicu Valcea will score, but Popești-Leordeni's attacking output falls below the threshold the model requires to project both teams scoring.CSM Ramnicu Valcea's Defensive Stability Score (91) comfortably exceeds the opposition's Attack Score (34). That structural defensive advantage is the clearest reason the model does not project both teams scoring.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 3.47 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 2-0 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. The probability grid is dominated by scorelines of two goals or fewer, with the over 2.5 market requiring a result that sits outside the model's most likely outcomes.The defensive profiles of both sides are stronger than their attacking counterparts — CSM Ramnicu Valcea's Defensive Stability (91) and Popești-Leordeni's (66) both suggest teams capable of limiting the opposition. When both defences are this organised, the model expects a lower-scoring environment.

xG for (CSM Ramnicu Valcea)
2.70
avg per match
xG for (Popești-Leordeni)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (CSM Ramnicu Valcea)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Popești-Leordeni)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
CSM Ramnicu ValceaCSM Ramnicu Valcea
W
Popești-LeordeniPopești-Leordeni
DW

Probability breakdown

54% confidence
CSM Ramnicu Valcea54%
Draw26%
Popești-Leordeni21%

CSM Ramnicu Valcea leads with 54% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

CSM Ramnicu Valcea Backed to Win — Model Projects 2-0

CSM Ramnicu Valcea host Popești-Leordeni in Liga II. CSM Ramnicu Valcea have recorded WWWDDW in recent matches while Popești-Leordeni arrive with a run of WWDWDL.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 2.49 expected goals for CSM Ramnicu Valcea against 0.99 for Popești-Leordeni — a significant advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. CSM Ramnicu Valcea's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 60% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: ⚽ Attacking Efficiency CSM Ramnicu Valcea have averaged 2.44 goals per game recently while Popești-Leordeni have managed 1.39. CSM Ramnicu Valcea carry the sharper attacking edge — a factor the model weighs in its CSM Ramnicu Valcea win projection.

Why GoalVio backs this

CSM Ramnicu Valcea are generating a dominant xG advantage — 2.49 projected against 0.99 for Popești-Leordeni. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 1.50 is the clearest signal in the model that CSM Ramnicu Valcea are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: Popești-Leordeni have won 3 of their last 10 matches — a run of form the model acknowledges but cannot fully override. If Popești-Leordeni carry that momentum into this fixture and score first, the upset probability rises significantly above what the headline verdict suggests.

Risk factors

  • Popești-Leordeni are in decent form with 3 wins from their last 10 matches — an upset cannot be ruled out.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
  • The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.

Recent form

CSM Ramnicu Valcea

CSM Ramnicu Valcea

W
vs Academica Balș
15 May 2026
30
Popești-Leordeni

Popești-Leordeni

D
@ ASA Targu Mures
14 Jul 2026
11
W
@ Tricolorul Breaza
16 May 2026
30

Frequently asked questions

Who will win CSM Ramnicu Valcea vs Popești-Leordeni?

GoalVio's model predicts CSM Ramnicu Valcea to win with 54% confidence.

What is the predicted score for CSM Ramnicu Valcea vs Popești-Leordeni?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-0.

Will both teams score in CSM Ramnicu Valcea vs Popești-Leordeni?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in CSM Ramnicu Valcea vs Popești-Leordeni?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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