CSKA Sofiavs
Ludogorets
COMPLETEDBulgaria · First League · 10/26/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CSKA Sofia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
CSKA Sofia 2-0 Ludogorets
Original prediction
CSKA Sofia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 06:29 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.15 | 43.0% | 39.0% | -3.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 27.8% | 28.9% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 3.15 | 29.3% | 32.1% | 2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.15 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
CSKA Sofia
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
CSKA Sofia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 18 · GA 1 · avg 3.60/0.20