CSKA Sofiavs
Cherno More Varna
COMPLETEDBulgaria · First League · 8/30/2026, 6:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CSKA Sofia · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 3-0 (12%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
CSKA Sofia 3-1 Cherno More Varna
Original prediction
CSKA Sofia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.46 | 63.2% | 67.2% | 4.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.07 | 22.6% | 19.1% | -3.5 pts |
| Away | 6.52 | 14.1% | 13.7% | -0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.46 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.3–012%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
CSKA Sofia
Probability
67.2%
Model confidence
67.2%
CSKA Sofia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40