CSKA Sofiavs
Arda Kardzhali
COMPLETEDBulgaria · First League · 9/12/2026, 6:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CSKA Sofia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
CSKA Sofia 4-1 Arda Kardzhali
Original prediction
CSKA Sofia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.76 | 52.5% | 50.1% | -2.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 27.8% | 26.6% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 4.67 | 19.7% | 23.3% | 3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.76 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
CSKA Sofia
Probability
50.1%
Model confidence
50.1%
CSKA Sofia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80