Supreme Division WomenSupreme Division Women
Saturday, 1 August 202611:00Updated today
CSKA Moskva W

CSKA Moskva W

Home
W
vs
11:00
Krylya Sovetov W

Krylya Sovetov W

Away
W
Stadion Novye Chimki
GoalVio prediction
60% confidence
CSKA Moskva W(60%)
Most likely exact score2-0
Win probability
CSKA Moskva W
60%
Draw
24%
Krylya Sovetov W
16%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
CSKA Moskva W
73
Krylya Sovetov W
73
Defence
CSKA Moskva W
91
Krylya Sovetov W
91
Momentum
CSKA Moskva W
100
Krylya Sovetov W
100
Danger (xG)
CSKA Moskva W
1.80
Krylya Sovetov W
1.80
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 2.41 xG for CSKA Moskva W and 0.53 xG for Krylya Sovetov W. Krylya Sovetov W's projected xG of 0.53 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 2-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. The xG distribution suggests CSKA Moskva W will score, but Krylya Sovetov W's attacking output falls below the threshold the model requires to project both teams scoring.CSKA Moskva W's Defensive Stability Score (91) comfortably exceeds the opposition's Attack Score (73). That structural defensive advantage is the clearest reason the model does not project both teams scoring.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 2.93 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 2-0 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. The probability grid is dominated by scorelines of two goals or fewer, with the over 2.5 market requiring a result that sits outside the model's most likely outcomes.The defensive profiles of both sides are stronger than their attacking counterparts — CSKA Moskva W's Defensive Stability (91) and Krylya Sovetov W's (91) both suggest teams capable of limiting the opposition. When both defences are this organised, the model expects a lower-scoring environment.

xG for (CSKA Moskva W)
1.80
avg per match
xG for (Krylya Sovetov W)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (CSKA Moskva W)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Krylya Sovetov W)
0.00
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
CSKA Moskva WCSKA Moskva W
W
Krylya Sovetov WKrylya Sovetov W
W

Probability breakdown

60% confidence
CSKA Moskva W60%
Draw24%
Krylya Sovetov W16%

CSKA Moskva W leads with 60% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

CSKA Moskva W Backed to Win — Model Projects 2-0

CSKA Moskva W host Krylya Sovetov W in Supreme Division Women. CSKA Moskva W have recorded WLWDWW in recent matches while Krylya Sovetov W arrive with a run of WDLWWD. These sides have met 7 times recently, averaging 3.4 goals per game.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 2.41 expected goals for CSKA Moskva W against 0.53 for Krylya Sovetov W — a significant advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. CSKA Moskva W's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 57% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: 🔄 Head-to-Head Record CSKA Moskva W have won 5 of the last 7 meetings between these sides — a historically dominant record that the model treats as a meaningful signal when the underlying stats are otherwise close.

Why GoalVio backs this

CSKA Moskva W are generating a dominant xG advantage — 2.41 projected against 0.53 for Krylya Sovetov W. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 1.88 is the clearest signal in the model that CSKA Moskva W are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: Krylya Sovetov W have won 3 of their last 10 matches — a run of form the model acknowledges but cannot fully override. If Krylya Sovetov W carry that momentum into this fixture and score first, the upset probability rises significantly above what the headline verdict suggests.

Risk factors

  • Krylya Sovetov W are in decent form with 3 wins from their last 10 matches — an upset cannot be ruled out.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
  • The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.

Recent form

CSKA Moskva W

CSKA Moskva W

W
vs Rostov W
17 Jul 2026
20
Krylya Sovetov W

Krylya Sovetov W

W
vs Zvezda Perm W
16 May 2026
20

Frequently asked questions

Who will win CSKA Moskva W vs Krylya Sovetov W?

GoalVio's model predicts CSKA Moskva W to win with 60% confidence.

What is the predicted score for CSKA Moskva W vs Krylya Sovetov W?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-0.

Will both teams score in CSKA Moskva W vs Krylya Sovetov W?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in CSKA Moskva W vs Krylya Sovetov W?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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